Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.
Corn
Corn situation after the close Tuesday, August 16, 2022:
December corn settled on Tuesday at $6.10¼.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.03¾.
The past week’s high was $6.42¾, the low was $6.07¾.
Contract high is $7.66¼ made May 16, 2022;
Contract low is $3.69 made June 26, 2020;
Range is $3.97¼.
Yesterday’s closing price is:
$1.56 below the contract high;
$2.41¼ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 95
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 94
Seasonal Trend is up for one week, then down
Fundamentals: bullish
Technical Situation: uptrend
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Sell all 2022 corn on a December HTA at $7.24
We previously recommended pricing all old crop and all new crop your nerves could stand when December corn was $7.50+ on May 13th, 2022. All those orders were filled by May 16th.
This week's Bullish Consensus and Seasonal chart
Soybeans
Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, August 16, 2022:
November Soybeans settled on Tuesday at $13.81.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.47¾.
This past week’s high was $14.64¾, the low was $13.76.
Contract high is $15.84¾ on June 10, 2022;
Contract low is $8.81 on August 7, 2020;
Range is $7.03¾.
Tuesday’s closing price is:
$2.03¾ below the contract high;
$5.00 above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 18, world: 90
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 20, world: 98
Seasonal Trend is up until 2nd week of September
Fundamentals: bullish, bullish, and then more bullish
Technical Situation: uptrend
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Sell HTA $15.72 (be patient and it will come)
This week's Bullish Consensus and Seasonal chart
Wheat
Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, August 16, 2022:
July 2023 KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled on Tuesday at $8.67¾.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: up $0.09¼.
Last week’s high was $8.95¾, the low was $8.60½.
Contract high is $12.10 on May 19, 2022;
Contract low is $4.94 on August 4, 2020;
Range is $7.16.
Tuesday closing price is:
$3.42¼ below the contract high;
$3.73¾ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 125, world: 127
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 117, world: 124
Seasonal Trend is sideways then up in 3 weeks
Fundamentals: bearish
Technical Situation: Sideways
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2023 July KC on a HTA at $9.98 or higher or buy a put option.
We previously recommended pricing 2023 KC wheat at $8.35, filled March 21st
This week's Bullish Consensus and Seasonal chart
