Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.
Explanation of our approach:
Corn
Corn situation after the close Tuesday, July 23, 2024:
September corn settled yesterday at $4.02½, +6¾¢ since last Tuesday.
December corn settled yesterday at $4.17¼, +8½¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $4.22½, the low was $4.04.
Contract high is $5.90 made June 17, 2022;
Contract low is $4.03 made July 12, 2024;
Contract range is $1.87.
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.72¾ below the contract high and 14¼¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 46, world 93.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 51, world 93.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend is bearish.
Fundamentals are bullish as crop is made, market has priced-in a 182 bu. yield, probably will not make that; USDA increased demand by 250 mil. bu. on the July S&D; National average basis has firmed 35¢ since June 1st; Weather is turning dry; beans will pull corn up; Low for the year was made July 12th.
Technical Situation is sideways to bearish, Spec funds are close to record net short.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 corn when profitable
September corn futures price target: $5.00 to $5.25 minimum
December corn target: $5.25 to $5.50
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Soybeans
Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, July 23, 2024:
August Soybeans settled yesterday at $11.17½, +27¢ since last Tuesday.
November Soybeans settled yesterday at $10.75½, +32¼¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $10.86¾, the low was $10.31¾.
Contract high is $13.51 on November 4, 2022;
Contract low is $10.31¾ on July 18, 2024;
Contract range is $3.19¼.
Tuesday’s closing price was $2.75½ below the contract high and 43¾¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 31, world 106.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 36, world 116.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend is bearish.
Fundamentals are bullish as supplies are tight in the USA (market inverted), Brazil’s crop about 20 mil less than expected and out of the export market, August weather will be brutal according NOAA; take a look at the 8 to 14 day forecast which will rally soybeans.
Technical Situation is bearish to sideways, Spec funds are deeply net short.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 soybeans when profitable.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Wheat
Hard Winter Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, July 23, 2024:
September HRW Wheat settled yesterday at $5.66¾, +16½¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $5.79½, the low was $5.47.
Contract high is $8.59¼ on July 25, 2023;
Contract low is $5.45¾ on July 16, 2024;
Contract range is $3.13½.
Tuesday’s closing price was $2.92½ below the contract high and 21¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 159, world 117.
USDA’s 2024/25 HRW wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 191.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is mixed, check the chart below.
Fundamentals are bullish as the world has consumed more wheat than it produced in the past four years.
Technical Situation is bearish to sideways.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Previously recommended sales 2023 old crop ($6.81 July futures), new crop (50% at $6.81 and 50% at $7.20 HTA) and up to 100% of 2025 wheat production (July 2025 at $7.20 HTA and $7.45 HTA). Catch up sales after seasonal low is made in late August.
Spring Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, July 23, 2024:
September HRS Wheat settled yesterday at $6.15½, +39¾¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $6.29½, the low was $5.74¾.
Contract high is $8.71¾ on July 25, 2023;
Contract low is $5.74¾ on July 17, 2024;
Contract range is $2.97.
Tuesday’s closing price was $2.56¼ below the contract high and 40¾¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 159, world 117.
USDA’s 2024/25 HRS wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 155.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is bearish, 50% chance the high was made before June 1st and 95% chance the high will be made before August 1st.
Fundamentals are bullish due to a war in “The Bread Basket of The World”.
Technical Situation is bearish to sideways.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Previously recommended 50% of 2024 crop with a Sept HTA or forward contract when September 2024 at $7.38 and placed an order to price 50% at $7.98 on the September HTA 2024. No recommendation for 2025 HRSW currently, but thinking in the $8.65 area
Soft Red Winter:
Previously sold 50% of 2024 crop at $6.64 HTA and 50% at $7.20 HTA, 50% of 2025 SRW wheat at $7.55 HTA and an order in place to price 50% at $7.98. Catch-up sales after seasonal low made in late August.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
