Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.
Explanation of our approach:
Corn
Corn situation after the close Tuesday, May 28, 2024:
July corn settled yesterday at $4.62½, +4½¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $4.71, the low was $4.58.
Contract high is $6.84½ made April 28, 2022;
Contract low is $4.08¾ made February 26, 2024;
Contract range is $2.75¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $2.22 below the contract high and 53¾¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 50, world 94.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 52, world 93.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend is bullish into June, look at the updated chart below.
Fundamentals are bullish as US domestic and export demand is strong, safrinha acreage down and weather has turned dry two weeks early; Argentine crop down 15+% due to Corn Stunt disease.
Technical Situation is sideways, still bullish long-term.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 corn when and if profitable in June;
July corn targets: $5.00 to $5.25 with normal weather;
December corn targets: $5.25 to $5.50 with normal weather;
Get it sold by June 21st when the seasonal trend turns down if profitable!
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Soybeans
Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, May 28, 2024:
July Soybeans settled yesterday at $12.29½, -6¾¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $12.58¼, the low was $12.26¼.
Contract high is $14.21 on November 15, 2023;
Contract low is $11.40½ on February 29, 2024;
Contract range is $2.80½
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.91½ below the contract high and 89¢ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 30, world 106.
USDA’s 2024/25 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 37, world 117.
Pricing factors:
Seasonal Trend is bullish into June, look at the updated chart below.
Fundamentals are bullish as supplies are fairly tight in the USA, Brazil’s crop is about 20 mil less than expected.
Technical Situation is sideways, still bullish long-term.
Price is below the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price remaining 2023 and 2024 soybeans when and if profitable in June or July.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
Wheat
Hard Winter Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, May 28, 2024:
July HRW Wheat settled yesterday at $7.31¼, +29¾¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $7.46¼, the low was $6.90.
Contract high is $10.00 on June 13, 2022;
Contract low is $5.43¼ on March 6, 2024;
Contract range is $4.56¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $2.68¾ below the contract high and $1.88 above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 137, world 118.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 147, world 115.
USDA’s 2023/24 HRW wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 172.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is bearish, peaks no later than this month 24 of the last 28 years.
Fundamentals are bullish as the world has consumed more wheat than it produced in the past four years.
Technical Situation is bullish.
Price is above the breakeven and has traded above all our target prices.
Conclusion:
You should have already sold remaining 2023 HRW wheat with cash sale
HTA or forward contract all your nerves can stand of 2024 HRW wheat today
HTA contract 50% or as much as your nerves can stand of 2025 HRW today
Spring Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, May 28, 2024:
September HRS Wheat settled yesterday at $7.66½, +18¼¢ since last Tuesday.
The past 7 days’ high was $7.76¼, the low was $7.41½.
Contract high is $8.71¾ on July 25, 2023;
Contract low is $6.46 on April 3, 2024;
Contract range is $2.25¾.
Tuesday’s closing price was $1.05¼ below the contract high and $1.20½ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2023/24 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 137, world 118.
USDA’s 2024/25 total wheat carryout in days’ use: US 147, world 115.
USDA’s 2023/24 HRS wheat carryout in terms of days’ use: US 138.
Pricing factors:
The Seasonal Trend is bearish, 50% chance the high will be made before June 1st and 95% and chance the high will be made before August 1st.
Fundamentals are bullish due to a war in “The Bread Basket of The World”.
Technical Situation is bullish.
Price is probably above the breakeven.
Conclusion:
Price any remaining 2023 HRS wheat with cash sale today
If you have not priced any 2024 spring wheat, do 50% with HTA or forward contract now and 50% at $7.98 on the September 2024
No recommendation for 2025 HSW currently, but thinking in the $8.65 area
Soft Red Winter:
Sell any remaining 2023 SRW wheat with cash sale today
Bring percentage of 2024 crop sales to as many bushels as your nerves (up to 100%) can stand with HTA or forward contract
HTA or forward contract 50% of 2025 SRW wheat at $7.55 (done last Wednesday) and 50% at $7.98
This week's Bullish Consensus:
And the Seasonal Chart reminder:
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