Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.
Corn
Corn situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
March corn settled on Tuesday at $6.55.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.15½.
The past week’s high was $6.71¾, the low was $6.48¼.
Contract high is $7.68½ made May 16, 2022;
Contract low is $3.95¾ made Dec 15, 2020;
Range is $3.72¾.
Yesterday’s closing price is:
$1.13½ below the contract high;
$2.59¼ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 34, world: 93
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 33, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is up.
Fundamentals are bullish.
Technical Situation is up.
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Lock-in the HTA on all remaining 2022 corn when March trades to $7.24
We previously recommended on May 13, 2022 pricing all 2021 and 2022 crop corn your nerves could stand when December corn was $7.50+. All those orders were filled by May 16th.
This week's Bullish Consensus
And Seasonal Chart
Soybeans
Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
March Soybeans settled on Tuesday at $14.85.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.07¼.
This past week’s high was $15.06½, the low was $14.65.
Contract high is $15.72¼ on June 9, 2022;
Contract low is $9.85¾ on December 8, 2020;
Range is $5.86½.
Tuesday’s closing price is:
$0.87¼ below the contract high;
$4.99¼ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 22, world: 96
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 18, world: 98
Seasonal Trend is sideways for a few more days then down for three weeks, higher into summer.
Fundamentals are bullish, very bullish long term.
Technical Situation is uptrend.
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell HTA $15.72 (be patient and it will come)
This week's Bullish Consensus
And Seasonal Chart
Wheat
Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
July 2023 KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled on Tuesday at $8.06¾.
Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.52¾.
Last week’s high was $8.62¼, the low was $7.99.
Contract high is $12.10 on May 19, 2022;
Contract low is $4.94 on August 4, 2020;
Range is $7.16.
Tuesday closing price is:
$4.03¼ below the contract high;
$3.12¾ above the contract low.
USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 127, world: 127
USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 112, world: 124
Seasonal Trend: the 30 year seasonal turns down next week; the five year seasonal trend is up to late March.
Fundamentals are very bullish.
Technical Situation is up.
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Place no orders to sell wheat at any price at this time.
We previously recommended pricing 2023 KC wheat at $8.35, filled March 21st.
This week's Bullish Consensus
And Seasonal Chart
