Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.
Corn
Corn Situation after the close 17 May 2022 Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022. On May 13, we recommended selling any remaining old crop corn at the market (about $7.85 July futures), basis contracts, long call options, DP, etc. Did NOT recommend buying puts just yet. July 2022 corn made its high April 29th at $8.24½ and settled yesterday at $8.00¾ December corn settled at $7.19 on Tuesday, 17 May 2022 Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 41¾ cents 24-month high $7.66¼ made 16 May 2022, $1.28¼ above the Dec corn 2021 high 24-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 24-month range is $3.97¼ Yesterday’s closing price is: 5½ cents below the 24-month high $3.91¾ above the 24-month low USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 94 USDA's 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 34, world: 94
Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Sell December HTA at $7.50 or better
The past week’s low was $7.19; the high was $7.66¼
May 18th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Corn | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 73% | 34% |
neutral | 16% | 48% |
bearish | 2% | 17% |
no opinion | 9% | 0% |
Soybeans
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 17th, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: July soybeans traded to $17.41 on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 72½ cents. July beans settled at $16.78 on May 17th.
November Soybeans Settled May 17th at $15.25½.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 70¾ cents.
24 Month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
24 Month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
24 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
29½ cents below the 24-month high
$6.44½ above the 24-month low
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 19, world: 86
USDA's 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 26, world: 96
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.52¾, high was $15.30¾
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Soybeans | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 55% | 55% |
neutral | 21% | 24% |
bearish | 16% | 21% |
no opinion | 8% | 0% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 17th, 2022:
We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $12.77½ on May 17th, 2022.
On April 7th, 2022, we recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better. Filled. The premium of the $9.00 put at yesterday’s close was 7 cents.
On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $13.67¾.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up $1.92¾
24-month high: $13.79¼ May 17, 2022
24-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
24-month range is $8.62¾
Tuesday closing price is:
11½ cents below the 24-month high
$8.1¼ above the 24-month low
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 124, world: 129
2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 120, world: 124
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals outlook is bearish
Technical Situation is down short term, up long term
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08 or higher
Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $12.07 yesterday. Keep Selling
Last week’s low July 2022 was $11.75; the high was $13.79
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Wheat | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 66% | 62% |
neutral | 24% | 23% |
bearish | 13% | 15% |
no opinion | 7% | 0% |
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