Corn
Corn Situation after the close 5 April 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.
May 2022 corn made a new high on March 4th at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.59¾.
December corn settled at $7.06½ on Tuesday, 5th of April 2022
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 53¾ cents
20-month high $7.12½ made 5 April 2022, 42½ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $3.11¾
Yesterday’s closing price is:
5¾ cents below the 20-month high
$3.37½ above the 20-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 93
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $6.51½; the high was $7.12½
April 6th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Corn | Wright on the Market | Grainstats |
bullish | 71% | 73% |
neutral | 21% | 16% |
bearish | 8% | 2% |
no opinion | 0% | 9% |
Soybeans
USDA announced this morning 132,000 mt of old crop beans were sold to China.
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 5th, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.31 on April 5th.
November Soybeans Settled at $14.55¾
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 7¼ cents.
18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
99¼ cents below the 18-month high
$5.74¾ above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 103
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 24, world: 90
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $13.99½, high was $14.82
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Soybeans | Wright on the Market | Grainstats |
bullish | 55% | 55% |
neutral | 30% | 21% |
bearish | 12% | 16% |
no opinion | 2% | 8% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 5th, 2022:
We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.45½ on April 5th, 2022.
On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $10.84¼.
Price Change Tuesday to Friday: up 60 cents
19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022
19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
19-month range is $7.55¾
Friday’s closing price is:
$1.74¾ below the 19-month high
$5.81 above the 19-month low
2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 123, world: 130
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War
continues into July, neither of which is likely
Technical Situation is sideways short term, up long term
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08
Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $9.41¼ yesterday.
Last week’s low July 2022 was $10.12½; the high was $11.00½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Wheat | Wright on the Market | Grainstats |
bullish | 38% | 56% |
neutral | 50% | 24% |
bearish | 9% | 13% |
no opinion | 3% | 7% |
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