It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 39,513, +837.16 points for the week.
Crude oil settled at $78.2, +0.21.
The Dollar Index settled at 105.31, +0.23.
The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,129, +253 for the week.
Corn
July futures at $4.69¾, +9½¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -24N, 1¢ weaker.
Dayton, Ohio Cargill’s spot basis is -10N, steady, $4.60 cash price.
Iowa Falls Poet’s spot basis is 3N, steady, $4.73 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders, chart below)
Commercial Traders change is -107,190 to 162,635 net short (bought 535.95 mil. bu. more of physical grain than sold).
Big Spec Funds change is +115,527 to 102,513 net short.
Open Interest change is +89,409 to 1,895,082.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is issued every Friday afternoon. It reports open interest as of the close of business the previous Tuesday. We use the Disaggregated version. Open Interest is the number of contracts on the books. You can find our explanation of Open Interest and funds here: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/open-interest-of-specs
Crush Margin
Corn Ethanol Crush Margin was $1.87, $1.95 a week ago and $2.94 a year ago.
The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.
Soybeans
July futures at $12.19, +4¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July; e.g. -20N means 20¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -63N, 2¢ weaker.
Iowa Falls Cargill’s spot basis is -5N, 10¢ weaker, $12.14 cash price.
Sidney, OH Cargill’s spot basis is -10N, steady, $12.09 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders, chart below)
Commercial Traders change is -84,464 to 46,889 net short from net long last week (bought 422.32 mil. bu. more of physical grain than sold).
Big Spec Funds change is +107,783 to 41,453 net short.
Open Interest change is +43,105 to 954,273.
Crush Margin
Soybean Crush Margin was $2.27, $2.07 a week ago and $2.38 a year ago.
Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.
Wheat
Soft Red Winter Wheat (CBOT)
July futures at $6.63½, +41¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July; e.g. -8N means 8¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -60N, steady.
Heritage Coop. at Mechanicsburg, OH: July basis is -40N, steady, $6.24 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders, chart below)
Commercial Traders change is -3,058 to 30,988 net short (bought 15.29 mil. bu. more of physical grain than sold).
Big Spec Funds change is +5,506 to 42,360 net short.
Open Interest change is +25,111 to 448,731.
Hard Red Winter Wheat (Kansas City BOT)
July futures at $6.73¼, +23¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July; e.g. -40N means 40¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -51N, steady.
Producer AG at Canton, KS: July basis is -40N, 7¢ weaker, $6.36 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders, chart below)
Commercial Traders change is -5,154 to 37,490 net short (bought 25.77 mil. bu. more of physical grain than sold).
Big Spec Funds change is +5,597 to 24,013 net short.
Open Interest change is +4,716 to 258,893.
Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis Grain Exchange)
September futures at $7.26½, +7¢ for the week.
The US national average basis is -32N, 3¢ weaker.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders, chart below)
Commercial Traders change is -6,545 to 519 net short from net long last week (bought 32.725 mil. bu. more of physical grain than sold).
Big Spec Funds change is +6,284 to 3,010 net short.
Open Interest change is -1,906 to 50,303.
What you should have noticed
Big gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, and it’s getting close to the previous all-time highs.
No big changes for the Dollar Index and crude oil, but the Baltic Dry Index moved higher above the normal range.
Open Interest was higher for corn, beans and winter wheats, but not spring wheat.
Futures closed the week with a gain, but the start of the week was a correction lower on all 5 markets.
There was a huge change in Spec Funds’ position in corn and soybeans – net short position reduced more than 100,000 change in one week by closing a lot of short contracts and opening of the long ones. While Commercials were adding to the short side almost the same for hedging. Check the provided charts above.
Corn average basis declined by 1¢, and it’s the first decline in 25 weeks. Soybeans' basis declined too after a long streak of firming.
Corn crush margins reduced for the third week in a row, it’s far from a disaster but the trend is not good for the demand. Soybeans crush margin improved.
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