The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 32,816.92, down 1,009.77 points for the week.
Crude oil settled at $76.45, +12¢.
The Dollar Index settled at 105.26, +1.38.
The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 883, +345 for the week.
Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week.
Corn
May futures at $6.49¼, -28¼¢ for the week.
December futures at $5.76¼, -19½¢ for the week.
Basis (K = May, H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is 7H, 1¢ weaker.
Dayton, Ohio Cargill’s spot basis is 7K (moved to May), 1¢ firmer, $6.56 cash price.
Iowa Falls Poet’s spot basis is 13K, steady, $6.62 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is issued every Friday afternoon. It reports open interest as of the close of business the previous Tuesday. Open Interest is the number of contracts on the books. You can find our explanation of Open Interest and Funds trades here: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/open-interest-of-specs
Reported positions as of January, 31:
Big Spec Funds change is +18,971 to 141,657 net long.
Index Funds change is -516 to 354,826 net long.
Open Interest change is +14,834 to 1,602,455.
Crush Margin
Corn Ethanol Crush Margin was $1.70, $1.58 a week ago and $1.36 a year ago.
The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.
Soybeans
May futures at $15.19¼, -3¢ for the week.
November futures at $13.74, -12¼¢.
Basis (K = May, H = March; e.g. -20H means 20¢ under March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -41H, 3¢ weaker.
Iowa Falls Cargill: spot basis is -65K, steady, $14.54 cash price;
Sidney, OH Cargill: spot basis is -8K, steady, $15.11 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Reported positions as of January, 31:
Big Spec Funds change is +30,575 to 135,314 net long.
Index Funds change is +2,262 to 130,850 net long.
Open Interest change is +9,674 to 807,030.
Crush Margin
Soybean Crush Margin was $4.19, $4.37 a week ago and $3.98 a year ago.
Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.
Wheat
Soft Red Winter Wheat (CBOT)
July 2023 futures at $7.29¼, -51¾¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July, H = March; e.g. -28N means 28¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -42H, 1¢ firmer.
Heritage Coop. at Mechanicsburg, OH: July basis is -40N, 10¢ firmer, $6.89 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Reported positions as of January, 31:
Big Spec Funds change is +12,008 to -72,229 net short.
Index Funds change is +44 to 98,631 net long.
Open Interest change is -5,107 to 414,563.
Hard Red Winter Wheat (Kansas City BOT)
July 2023 futures at $8.28, -55¼¢ for the week.
Basis (N = July, H = March; e.g. -40N means 40¢ under July futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)
The US national average basis is -31H, 1¢ weaker.
Producer AG at Canton, KS: July basis is -15N, steady, $8.13 cash price.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
Reported positions as of January, 31:
Big Spec Funds change is +7,315 to -12,119 net short.
Index Funds change is +1,183 to 46,414 net long.
Open Interest change is +6,767 to 202,955.
Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis Grain Exchange)
September 2023 futures at $8.63½, -35¼¢ for the week.
The US national average basis is -31H, steady.
What you should have noticed
CFTC began publishing Commitments of Traders (COT) reports that were delayed due to ransomware attack on ION Group, UK. This week they issued the report that was scheduled for publishing on February, 3, 2023. It’s four weeks old, no reason to pay too much attention to it just yet. CFTC expects that “publication of backlogged reports will be complete by mid-March”.
Dow Jones had a major decline, 3% lower.
Crude Oil was about steady for the week, but had a wild $4 trading range during the week.
The Dollar Index was substantially firmer. That normally means lower crude oil, but not this week. That is an indication crude will be higher Sunday night.
Baltic Index gained +64%. Somebody is buying a lot of something and they need ships.
All futures were lower this week, corn and wheat took it the hardest, which is typical for late February.
CBOT wheat average basis firmed 1¢.
Soybeans national average basis weakened 3¢.
Corn & KC HRW wheat average basis weakened 1¢.
A sharply lower futures price usually results in a firmer basis unless farmers are panic selling. Corn, beans & KC wheat basis was weaker, CBOT wheat was not. Don't be a panic seller. It is a very expensive habit.
Poet at Iowa Falls moved their corn basis to May futures.
Corn crush margin gained 12¢. Soybeans' crush was lower 18¢, still very profitable for the demand.
Bullish Consensus voting
Summarize & share your market outlook for corn, wheat and beans. It's a good practice to form your marketing opinion. And the more opinions are expressed, the more reliable is the Bullish Consensus results. Bullish Consensus saved the Kennedy fortune. It will help build your fortune if we get enough opinions shared every week.
Vote just once a week at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/vote
Comentarios