Highlights
The fear of Trump’s tariffs being applied to U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada stopped and then killed an end-of-the-week, end-of-the-month, profit-taking rally despite a grossly oversold corn market. May corn has lost 46¾¢ the past 8 trading days and settled lower than any day since 9 January.
The Dow was down 140 points early yesterday afternoon but recovered to end the day up 601 points. Crude oil recovered about half of its early losses, but no recovery for the grain complex other than soybean meal.
What has changed in the 10 or so days? The drought areas of the Corn Belt increased 11%. The USDA predicted 400,000 more 2025 corn acres than the market expected, but if that was so important for corn, why was 400,000 less soybean acres not bullish? Panic selling consumed traders as the automated AI and computer trading just sold every minor recovery throughout the day.
The world carryover is still the smallest in 7 or 8 years and 9 days less than the past two marketing years. The U.S. is still the only place to buy corn for the next 3+ months. And imagine what the $16 reduction per mt will do for the corn export demand and 46¢ will do for domestic demand.