Highlights
Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time.
The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the forecast every day for most or Mato Grosso where they are trying to cut beans. Things could get worse and probably will, but looks at these numbers:
South America will most likely produce 710 million more bushels of soybeans this year than it produced last year. That 710 million bushels is 150% of the current U.S carryover of 470 million bushels, which is the largest U.S. soybean carryover since the 2019 crop year when the average price paid to U.S. farmers was $8.59. Most cash bean prices are just under $10 right now.
Look again at the what March soybeans have done in January the past six years with much smaller South American crops: