Highlights
If you grow a feed grain, this is very important:
For all practical purposes, all the corn that Brazil exports is its second crop of corn, aka safrinha. It is planted after the soybean harvest in January and February. The number one factor to determine how much safrinha corn will yield is how mature it is when the dry season starts in May.
Persistent rains since early December where 85% of Brazil’s soybeans are grown has produced a bean crop about 14 million mts (10.2%) larger than ever before. However, the persistent rains continued to this very day, delaying the soybean harvest and that delayed the safrinha planting.
On February 22nd the window closes for the “ideal” planting date for safrinha and planting corn after March 1st in Mato Grosso is less profitable than planting corn in Northern Iowa after July 1st. It looks like 20-30% of Brazil’s safrinha corn is going to be planted late, extra-late, or not at all. Parana’s safrinha planting is the slowest in more than 12 years at just 37% complete. The 5 year average pace is 68%. Overall, Brazil’s safrinha crop is 55% planted vs. 63% last year.