Highlights
247AG weather predicts South American weather will be wet in the north, where they do not want it and dry in the south where they do want wet weather until next Thursday when the following 7 days will be the opposite. This forecast by several weather outfits is what rallied corn and beans the past two days, but probably by tomorrow, the market will trade next week's expected change of weather. Argentina’s thirsty crops will get some water, but that forecast is very bearish for beans as the combines will roll on a 6.25 billion bushel bean crop. The U.S. bean crop in 2024 was 4.366 billion bushels.
Also on Friday, traders will usually take profit if there is any to be had. That is especially true this Friday, which is the last business day of the month. March corn through yesterday has gained 41¢ in January and March beans also gained 41¢.
Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest reported yesterday:
“Producers in Mato Grosso are reporting excellent yields – above 70 sacks per hectare has been common (62.4 b/a). The main issue remains the interruptions caused by the continuous rain. Soybean premiums Fob Paguá rose yesterday – 5-10 ¢/b higher WoW. Stronger Real and slow farmer selling are supporting the levels – there is no pressure on logistics yet. Weather models show 7 days of very hot weather from Argentina up to Southern MGDS (Mato Grosso do Sul) and lower temps and more rains up north. Soybean shipments remain well below LY (last year) – 1 million tons. The export program is 10.5 million tons, 2 million below LY. Ethanol plants continue to buy Corn in Mato Grosso for spot (replacement Fob Santos equivalent to +120h [120¢ over March futures]). Soybean and corn farmer selling in Argentina was minimal again. Exporters are still waiting for more details. Safrinha planting in MT (Mato Grosso) at 1.15%, MGDS 2%, Goiás at 1-2% and Paraná 2% - all states are delayed.