Highlights
The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after making a contract low of $4.03¾ on 26 August.
Corn futures can reasonably be expected to be up-trending through January, then the late planted safrinha corn in Brazil will provide more support.
The USDA increased corn demand (usage) by 200 million bushels for this marketing year. The past three months, USDA has reduced the domestic corn carryover by 1 day in September, 2 days in October, 2 days in November, and then 5 days yesterday.
The projected U.S. corn carryover, at a 42 day supply, is smaller than last year and just 6 days’ more than two years ago when July corn traded to $8.24 in April of 2022 and December corn traded to $7.66 in May of 2022.
Better yet, the world corn carryover was reduced 3 days to an 87 day supply, which is 8 fewer days than the world carryover the past two years!