Why the Ukraine and Russia Conflict Is Important
When the shooting stops between Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices will drop substantially because both countries are major wheat exporters. Corn will also decline because Ukraine is the world’s No.4 corn exporter. Lower wheat and corn will drag beans lower as lower wheat and corn prices mean more bean acres.
We talk about corruption in Ukraine because that was a major reason there was a hold-up on the recent approval of more aid to Ukraine from the USA and EU. When the aid stops flowing to Ukraine, the war will be over. But of course, other things can happen to end the war, but right now, a lack of money to feed Ukraine’s war effort is the most likely reason this war will end. Therefore, we must keep a handle on the political will of the USA, Great Britain, and the EU to keep sending aid to Ukraine.
We do not expect aid to Ukraine to end for at least 7 to 9 months and the war will probably become much more violent in the meantime. But all the world’s growers and users of corn, wheat, and soybeans need to monitor the possibilities of when the war will likely end.
Highlights
It looks like Ukraine is gaining the means to be a more dangerous military adversary.
Poland announced it has given Ukraine permission to use all Polish-donated weapons to strike targets on Russian territory. Poland has donated a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets, 335 Main Battle Tanks and more than 100 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), howitzers and air defense systems.