Highlights
Corn is pricing-in:
The rain that fell in Argentina over the weekend and the heavy rains expected in the next 10 days. While those rains will save a lot of corn, it will not replace the lost yields. Even USDA reduced the Argentine corn production two weeks ago. Those bushels are not coming back.
The anticipation of a big increase in 2025 corn acres from the USDA’s Outlook Forum on Thursday. Everyone has been talking about big 2025 corn acres for months. The expectation of an event will more than market more than confirmation of the event. The corn acreage number has a better chance of being friendly to bullish than bearish.
The drier weather in Northern Brazil is allowing the safrinha corn crop planting to progress at the fastest pace yet for this year. However, at least 40% of the safrinha corn will be planted well past 22 February when the chances of a normal yield are reduced every day.
Tomorrow is the last trading day before the first notice day for delivery notices on March CBOT contracts after last Friday’s option expiration. CBOT commodities have a strong tendency to decline before both of those events. Most likely, Friday will see a substantial rally in the corn which will extend into the next week.