Tidbits
A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.
The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.
Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. About 70% of the crude coming in from Canada is refined in the Midwest. If the tariffs are enacted, logically diesel fuel in the Midwest is going to get more expensive.
The seasonal low price for crude oil is from late November to the first week of January. Usually, the low is Thanksgiving week and mostly sideways into January. But this year, the crude oil low was the second week in September... so far.