Highlights
The US corn crop is 95% planted vs. 91% last week. Corn is 85% emerged vs. 84% average. It is rated 74% good or excellent, 1% less than a week ago.
The US soybean crop is 87% planted vs. 84% on average and 78% last week. Emergence is 70% vs. 66% average.
The first soybean condition report was issued with 72% of the crop rated good/excellent vs. 60% last year, and 65% on average. The highest rated bean crops in the last 5 years were 70% in 2022 and 2020.
Winter wheat harvest is 12% complete vs. 6% average. Winter wheat is rated 47% good or excellent, 2% less than last week and 9% better than a year ago.
Spring wheat planting was 98% complete vs. 96% average and 98% expected. Spring wheat ratings also lost 2% to 72% good or excellent, 12% better than a year ago.
Rice is rated 82% good or excellent, 15% better than a year ago.
Sorghum is 65% planted, 60% is normal pace and rated 56% good or excellent vs. 57% a year ago.
Peanuts are 90% planted, 1% behind the average pace and rated 66% good or excellent vs. 69% a year ago.
Yesterday was the PP date for soybeans in MN, ND and SD. MN is 4% behind average pace at 87% planted. ND is 2% behind average pace with 81% of the bean planted. And SD is 5% ahead of pace with 88% of the bean crop planted.
Tidbits
Benson Quinn reports a lack of farmer selling is firming the old crop corn and bean spreads. Harvest is and will continue to keep the wheat spreads in excess of full carry. Chicago July to Sept is trading 135% of full carry.
The April NOPA soybean crush was revised to 169.436 million bushels crushed, up 3.402 million bushels. Soy oil inventory was revised up 77 million pounds to 1.832 billion pounds.
Soybean meal was the upside leader yesterday as Argentina’s oilseed union is planning a strike tomorrow to protest proposed labor reforms. Argentina is the world leading exporter of meal and soybean oil.
Safras & Mercado estimated Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest at 4% complete vs. 3% on average. AgRural reports harvest is 10% complete.
Indonesia sees rice production in June and July down due to delays in the crop cycle due to dry weather last year. June rice production is expected at 2.01 mil. mts (2.79 last year) and July production at 2.15 mil. mts (2.48 last year), according to data presented to parliament by agency head Arief Prasetyo. Indonesia’s food procurement agency Bulog has imported 1.2 mil. mts of rice as of April; 3.6 mil. mts is the import quota this year.
Egyptian urea production has been stopped due to natural gas supplies being cut due to the need to use the gas to generate electricity. The heat wave has caused domestic electricity demand to spike and has the government cutting industrial use to keep adequate supplies for its people.
US pork exports in April reached the highest tonnage and value since May 2021. April was also a robust month for U.S. beef exports, which were the largest in 10 months and valued at just under $900 million, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
FOMC’s (Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ Open Market Committee) two day meeting starts today. Decisions about interest rate changes and outlook will be revealed Wednesday afternoon. Retail inflation for May will be released tomorrow morning.
Senate Ag Republicans are gearing up to release their Farm Bill plans this week. The stage is set for a bitter fight over an extension this fall given the prospect of a new reauthorization looking worse by the day.
Crude oil is up $5+ the past four days. Yesterday’s bullish news was that jet fuel demand will be 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) more in 2024 than 2023 according to Simon Warren, an analyst at the world’s largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group. The jet fuel demand is back to where it was before COVID.
The monthly oil supply and demand data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC will be released later today and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will do the same on Wednesday.
ENSO Update:
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Market Data
Prices are as of 11:15 PM ET:
Crude oil is at $77.60, down $0.14
The dollar index is at 105.13, down 0.02
July palm oil is at 3,921 MYR, up 1. The contract high was made April, 3rd at 4,362 MYR. Palm oil owns 61% and soybean oil owns 14% world market share.
July cotton is at $72.07, up $0.26 per cwt. The contract high was made February, 28th at $102.68 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
July natural gas is at $3.020, up $0.114. The contract high was made November, 3rd at $3.557. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
July ULSD is at $2.4081 per gallon, down 0.0066. The contract high was made September, 15th at $2.8594. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
September Dow Futures is at 39,269, down 70. The contract high was made April, 1st at 40,358.
Rain Days Update
The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Explanation of Rain Days
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