Highlights
Analysts expect a military operation by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will likely maintain upward pressure on the crude oil market and natural gas to a lesser extent. The peak of hostilities will occur at the beginning of the driving season for Europe and the USA.
Israel announced it will launch an operation in Rafah, a city near the border with Egypt and the last refuge of Hamas among thousands of Palestinian refugees. The attack will begin before May 5th. The operation will consist of 4-5 stages. For the first 2-3 weeks, the population will be evacuated to a tent camp in Khan Yunis (5 km north of Rafah). A temporary capacity is being constructed to accommodate 400,000 to 480,000 people.
The military operation in Rafah will be carried out by one Division and two Brigades, which are being transferred from the north of Israel on the Lebanese border to the Gaza strip. According to Egypt, the military operation in Rafah itself will last at least 6 weeks.
Russia continues attacks on Ukraine ports; Ukraine continues attacks on Russia oil infrastructure, Mideast war continues, and China continues to get more aggressive in pursuing territory disputes in Southeast Asia.
Market adviser Keven Duling of Maupin, Oregon included this in his weekly report last evening:
"We are in a weather market that is aided by wars with the funds caught with a major short position, at the same time money is starting to move into real goods. A while back, I detailed 4 things that had the potential to be strong catalysts to get our markets out of the hole. They were: