Market Comment
Kevin Duling from Maupin, Oregon sent these comments to his clients yesterday afternoon about the USDA numbers:
"After the selloff, I assumed numbers were horrible. They were not that bad. In fact, when it comes to the corn/soy acreage, 3.6 million acres of the total corn had not been planted as of June 1 and 12.8 million acres of soybeans had not been planted. It is very likely that at least 1-2 million acres each of corn and soybeans did not get planted because of the flooding out of that 3.6 and 12.8. NASS assumed all would be planted."
For those of you with bushels in the bin and are concerned about the condition of the corn and beans, it is time to get the basis set and move the bushels to town. If futures rally, the basis will weaken. Basis may weaken even if futures do not rally because end users will get their old crop needs booked toward the end of July or early August. If the USDA is correct about carryovers, there will be a lot of corn and beans stored somewhere when the marketing year ends on the first of September and the basis will be weak.