Highlights
Some analysts say yesterday afternoon’s weakness at the CBOT was because polls were showing Harris was gaining on Trump. In fact, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
If a possible Harris victory is truly the reason CBOT prices faded yesterday afternoon, that indicates CBOT prices will rally if Trump does win. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2% and by nearly 10% in 2016.
USDA reported 91% of the corn and 94% of the soybeans are harvested. The corn harvest is 16% ahead of the 5-year average pace and the beans harvest 9% ahead of the 5-year average.
What is interesting is that this year’s harvest is the fastest corn harvest pace since 2012, a drought year with corn yields 30 bushels below average. This year, we have corn yields 6+ bushels more than the previous all-time record and still a very fast harvest pace.