Tidbits
The weather has been so dry, harvest will soon be over and the basis will firm much sooner than normal. The corn basis has already firmed from a week ago in about 30% of the Corn Belt with below average yields.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US has 25 days of diesel fuel left. In 2019, diesel supplies were down to a 25 day supply. In 2008, when crude oil hit $147 per barrel and the economy was in the worst recession since the Great Depression, diesel supplies were down to a 24 day supply. We see no reason to do anything other than keep the farm tank from getting empty before you order a refill.
EIA says first half 2022 US energy exports hit an all-time high in 2022, including diesel.
Bloomberg says at least two vessels carrying about 1 million barrels of diesel are on their way to NY. They were originally destined for Europe, but plans changed.
A diesel refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania is being restarted as seasonal maintenance has been completed.
On Nov 15 this year, the global population is expected to reach eight billion.
This is the week that egg prices begin a rather dramatic price uptrend as the calendar approaches Christmas. Even though egg prices are record high, the seasonal trend is expected to be fulfilled again this year.
Market Update
This morning:
Crude oil is at $83.98, down $1.07
The dollar index is at 112.33, up 0.32
December palm oil is at 4,052 MYR, unchanged. The contract high was made April, 29th at 6,384 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.
December cotton is at $79.58, up $0.45 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
December natural gas is at $5.435, down 0.037. The contract high was made August, 23rd at $10.119. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
December ULSD is at $3.5464 per gallon, down 0.0068. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.0719. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
December Dow Futures is at 31,065, down 58. The lifetime high is 36,832 on January 5th, 2022.
Rain Days Update
The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Explanation of Rain Days