Oct 21, 20223 min read

Tidbits, Export Sales, Markets & Rain Days Update 10/21/22

Yield Report West Central Indiana:

"Corn is about 200 bpa and beans about 60 averages this year as a whole. Finished beans Wednesday about half done with corn."

Thanks, Brian.

Highlights

Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of:

201,000 mt of soybeans to China
132,000 mt of soybeans to unknown

The Union Pacific and other railroads have rejected the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division union’s request to add paid sick time on top of the 24% raises and bonuses in the negotiated agreement. Six of the twelve major unions have approved the tentative agreement. The unions have agreed to hold off on any strike until mid-November.

Rumors are spreading that the entry to the port of Odessa, Ukraine’s largest grain port, will be blocked starting early in November. If that happens wheat prices will go to halfway to the moon and corn will go 25% of the way to the moon.

Tidbits

The updated drought maps showed that all drought categories expanded the past week with 70% of the US winter wheat crop now a drought category vs. 66% last week.

December soybean crush margins futures closed on another contract high yesterday. Crushers can lock-in profitable hedge margin for the next twelve months. That opportunity does not happen very often, maybe never before. Crushers run maximum capacity throughout the first half of the marketing year at the least. Where is this terrible soybean demand we have been hearing about? Look at the soybean export pace to date below… not so bad!

The International Grains Council (IGC) released its updated world grain report yesterday. World carryover of wheat and coarse grains will decline for the sixth consecutive year, down 3% this year to 584 million mt. Despite a decline in demand of 3 million mt to 2.271 billion mts, production is expected to decline by 34 million mts, due to a nearly 50 million mt decline in corn production. World wheat production remains unchanged from last month’s estimate at 792 million mts, which is 10 million mts higher than last year’s production.

IGC sees world soybean production up 9% over a year ago with the carryover at 54 million mts, a 17% increase. We expect La Niña will keep soybean production from expanding more than 3% and a near 7% increase in demand will eat up the 3% more beans.

U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss did resign yesterday as her conservative fiscal policy got her run out of town in just six weeks. Also yesterday, the UK inflation rate was reported to be higher than any time the past 40 years, over 10%. Those Britts have no idea how badly they need Liz Truss' leadership. She is the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher, the UK Prime Minister 1979 to 1990 who introduced a series of economic policies which reversed high inflation and a crippling recession of, yes, 40 years ago. She was a disciple of Milton Friedman's economic monetary policy (as was Ronald Reagan). She became known as the Iron Lady.

Export Sales Tracker

Market Update

This morning:

Crude oil is at $83.75, down $0.76

The dollar index is at 113.12, up 0.24

December palm oil is at 4,049 MYR, down 6. The contract high was made April, 29th at 6,384 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $76.61, down $0.79 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

December natural gas is at $5.694, down 0.144. The contract high was made August, 23rd at $10.119. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

December ULSD is at $3.4524 per gallon, down 0.0314. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.0719. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

December Dow Futures is at 30,254, down 99. The lifetime high is 36,832 on January 5th, 2022.