Tidbits, ENSO Q&A: El Niño & La Niña 10/14/24

Q&A: ENSO

Eugene asked:

"Last Tuesday, you guys reported this ENSO chart:

Your comment says that 60 days below the -0.5 threshold forms the La Nina.

Water temperature has been below the line at least since early July.

However, NOAA says "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance)".

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

So, why is it not a La Nina event already but a chance for it?"

Roger’s reply:

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