Today at 11:00 Central Time, the USDA will release its June S&D report, which will most likely be a non-event. USDA seldom changes any US demand numbers on the March, June, September or December S&D because 20 days later, the Quarterly Grain Inventory report is released and that takes the guesswork out of the demand question.
Speaking of which, do you remember the March soybean USDA inventory was 57 million bushels less than expected because the monthly crush and export numbers subtracted from the total supply (carry-in plus imports plus 2022 production) said we had 57 million bushels more beans than we did as of March first? Those missing 57 million bushels have yet to be addressed in the subsequent S&D reports and that is probably because the projected old soybean crop carryout this year is already 4 days tighter than last year’s soybean carryout and last year, July soybean futures traded to $17.84.
If there is surprise on the S&D today, it will be bullish with lower planted corn acres, lower corn and/or bean yields.
Highlights
Crude oil took a hit yesterday after a report from the Middle East Eye website reported the US and Iran were on the verge of a deal where Iran would be able to increase crude oil exports in exchange for a reduction in uranium enrichment activities. The White House said the report was false.
Yesterday, the dollar index was sharply lower and closed below its 20-day moving average for the first time since early May as interest rates declined and the S&P 500 moved 20% above its October low and joined the NASDAQ as an official bull market. Where is that recession?