Highlights
There was no agreement on Sunday in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Egypt. Neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to several compromises presented by mediators. However, the White House spokesperson, John Kirby, said the discussions will continue on the working-group level for the next few days to iron out specific issues. Kirby pushed back on suggestions that the talks have broken down, and said, on the contrary, that they were "constructive".
Cash oil in the US was up $2.33 yesterday as a missile attack by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah was largely thwarted by pre-emptive Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon Sunday night and then Libya announced Monday morning it was shutting down production and exports.
Libya's oil production was about 1.18 million barrels per day in July, according to OPEC.
The threat of attack against Israel by Iran and its proxy groups still exists, the Pentagon said on Monday.
An oil tanker with 150,000 tons of crude oil aboard has been on fire in the Red Sea since August 23 after an attack by Yemen's Houthis.
Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the pricing point for US crude oil futures, have fallen to six-month lows. The market thinks US crude inventories were expected to have declined by about 3 million barrels last week.
USDA Weekly Crop Conditions as of Sunday evening, 25 August 2024:
Spring wheat is 51% harvested, 2% behind the 5-year average.
Tidbits
After yesterday’s crop condition report from USDA, StoneX yield model index put corn yield at 183.1, down from last week’s 184.6. Their bean yield index this week is 53.8, down from last week’s 54.0.
Oil World reports rapeseed harvest is nearly completed in the EU, the UK, and Ukraine. Yields and production are considerably lower from a year ago as the EU production is 17.5 million mts, down 2.6 million mts from a year ago. Rapeseed competes with the other 8 vegetable oil seeds.
Malaysian palm oil futures traded to a one-month high yesterday. Malaysia’s newly elected president “hopes” to mandate 50% palm oil biodiesel in 2025. That will take a lot of vegetable oil off the world market. Indonesia will go from 35% palm oil biodiesel this year to 40% next year.
The RMA Crop Revenue Insurance Price calculation window for winter wheat markets runs from August 15 through September 14. The insurance price of Chicago wheat is calculated using September 2025 futures settlements, while Kansas City wheat uses July 2025 futures. Chicago is currently running at 595, down 75 from last year, and KC is 576, down 158.
Iowa farmland cash rent for 2024 county-by-county:
Brazil’s farmers have started planting their 2025 (1st) corn crop, according to AgRural. Their first crop of corn is about 25% of Brazil’s total corn production and is not exported because the export pipeline is full of soybeans. Brazil’s growing livestock and ethanol industries use all of the first corn crop.
Patria Agronegocios reports Brazil’s 2024 safrinha corn crop is 94.2% harvested, well ahead of last year’s 82.8% harvest pace for this date.
Bulgaria will produce 2.2 million mts of corn, its smallest crop in 10 years due to severe drought according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. That is 250,000 mts lower than a year ago. Area planted to corn is estimated down 9% from a year ago. This will be the third consecutive year of significantly below-average corn yields.
For those of you who sell or buy rice (or wheat) here is the link to World Grain’s analysis as of 22 August.
ENSO Update:
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Market Data
Prices are as of 11:10 PM ET:
Crude oil is at $77.15, down $0.27
The dollar index is at 100.86, up 0.01
December palm oil is at 3,957 MYR, up 51. The contract high was made April, 4th at 4,152 MYR. Palm oil owns 61% and soybean oil owns 14% world market share.
December cotton is at $70.16, down $0.10 per cwt. The contract high was made June, 9th 2022 at $91.38 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.
December natural gas is at $3.109, down 0.001. The contract high was made September, 1st 2022 at $5.627. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.
December ULSD is at $2.3878 per gallon, up 0.0014. The contract high was made June, 9th 2022 at $2.8058. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
September Dow Futures is at 41,324, down 11. The contract high was made July, 18th at 41,672.
Rain Days Update
The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Explanation of Rain Days
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