Highlights
IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate 500,000 mts to 82.0 mil. mts. The trade was looking for IKAR to lower production to as low as 75 million.
SovEcon, aka Andrey Sizov, puts total Russian grain production at 127.4 mil. mts, down 12% from last year. Wheat is expected to be down 13% at 80.7 mil. mts and corn down 12% at 14.6 mil. mts.
In hindsight, it appears Monday’s CBOT weakness was caused by the forecast that this week’s rain in the Western Corn Belt would move into the Eastern Corn Belt next week. Yesterday’s strength was prompted by the reduced possibility of rain in the East Corn Belt next week.
Note that the corn crop in Illinois lost 9% out of the good and excellent categories last week and the Illinois bean crop lost 8% out of the top two categories. Illinois grows about 13 million acres of soybeans and 12 million acres of corn every year while Iowa usually grows 13 million acres of corn and 12 million acres of soybeans. No other state grows more than 8 million acres of either crop.