Highlights
Yesterday was a painful day for those of us expecting this oversold corn market to recover a bit before tomorrow’s USDA Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Wheat Production Reports.
Computer programs that track carryover numbers and price history say the corn market is trading a 2.7 billion bushels new crop carryover. The USDA projected carryover is at 2.102 billion bushels.
The USDA used a corn yield of 181 on the last two S&Ds. The best average yield the USA corn has ever had was 177.4 in 2023. Given what we know, 2024 yield will be 177 at the very best. That is 382 million bushels off the USDA projected 2024 corn production, which would reduce the corn carryover to 1.774 billion bushels, a 44 day supply, 8 days less than the USDA showed on the June S&D and 6 days less than USDA showed on the old crop carryover and 8 days more than the 2022 crop carryover when cash and July corn traded over $8 and December corn to $7.66.