You have never had the opportunity to buy soybeans and sell corn when the corn price was half of the beans price. We are pretty close: 2.02 bushels of corn = 1 bushel of beans. Before the acreage report on Thursday, the ratio was 2.2 to 1, the lowest since 2009. Normal ratio is 2.4 to 1. Opportunity is knocking... Ramadan, a holy month for Muslims, began Saturday night. Worshipers abstain from eating and drinking during the daylight hours. It is thought by some to be major negative for the commodity markets, but history does not reflect that. They do not stop eating; they eat after sundown and before sunup. Weather for the next 10-15 days looks good for Europe’s wheat crop, where it has been dry. German food retail grocers increased food prices 20-50% today.
Webinar on April 5: Will Black Sea War Lead to Disaster in Global Grain Market? where Andrey Sizov will discuss implications for global wheat & corn markets. To participate you need to donate to UN WFP helping refugees with food.
The 28 March ENSO update includes the chart of equatorial Pacific surface temperature deviation from normal. When the temperature is a half degree below normal for 60 consecutive days causes La Niña and a half degree above normal for 60 days causes El Niño. In both cases world weather is no longer normal. Check out the water temperature chart below. La Niña episodes cause hot and dry weather in the Corn Belt.
To learn more about La Niña, El Niño, and ENSO, go to: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/cause-and-effect-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-episodes-part-1
Market Data
This morning: Crude oil is at $100.33, up $1.06 The dollar index is at 98.61, down 0.02 July palm oil is at 5,491 MYR, up 131. The contract high was made March, 9th at 6,531 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share. December cotton is at $111.61, up $0.93 per cwt. The contract high was made March, 28th at $114.15 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres. July natural gas is at $5.891, up 0.034 The contract high was made March, 31th at $5.943. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer. July ULSD is at $3.1835 per gallon, up 0.0579. The contract high was made March, 9th at $3.7675. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.
Rain Days Update
The Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 3 less rain days than yesterday.
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