The fact that the intraday (2 hour corn, 4 hour beans) support levels did not hold in December Corn or November Soybeans on Friday, means that there is still too much supply (sellers) in these markets.
The logical explanation for this is probably because of the harvest pressure on the grains. Harvest lows normally occur when harvest is approximately 50% complete - maybe 1 - 2 weeks?
I mistakenly thought that the problems in the field with the weather in August (threat to physical supply) would create enough demand to overcome any harvest pressure. Everything has its time and place.
This weekend is a good time for us to get our bearings on the long term weekly charts for both corn and beans. As I've stated before, on the weekly soybean chart, I believe it has been in a big triangle corrective wave since May 2021.
More specifically, beans has been working on the E down leg since January of this year. You will see a small (for the weekly) triangle working in beans over the last few weeks.
If there is going to be more selling this week, the lower line on the weekly chart comes in at 1310 +/ -5 cents. The buyers would likely defend this area if necessary. Otherwise, 1328+/- 3 cents, where a lower trendline comes into play on the 4 hour chart will be the 1st support level.
The impulse leg from May 2020 to May 2021 was 850 cents. Soybeans should be ready to embark on a similar leg now - following the Elliot wave rules, the upcoming leg should actually be longer, if my analysis is correct.
Here is the soybean weekly followed by the 4 hour November chart. The grayed out oval on the weekly represents the whole of the 4 hour chart below. Both the big and small triangles are coming to a pinch point on the weekly. This really shows perspective.
Intraday support levels were violated on the 2 hour December Corn, as well. If the 473.5 double bottom fails to bring out the whale buyers this week, the June 2019 high price was 468 as you will see on the corn weekly chart.
The big Elliot wave picture is similar with corn, where 2021 completed a 1 up impulse, and since then, corn's been working on a 5 point triangle correction. 1 was 476 cents, therefore 3 (next up impulse) should be longer, beginning any week now.
Here is the corn weekly, followed by the 2 hour December Corn chart. Again, the small grayed out oval on the weekly represents the 2 hour chart.
On the other hand, December wheat appears to have started an up leg, closing at 603.75, on Friday. It needs to close above 620 to breakout of the triple bottom formation to the upside.
Support for this week should be from 588 to 582 on the 2 hour December wheat chart. Check it out.
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