BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Tomorrow is the last trading day before delivery notices are posted for May futures. That usually means prices yesterday and today would be lower because all long May futures positions and basis contracts must be rolled or liquidated before the close Wednesday. Soy crush margins moved to fresh all-time highs at $3.52 per bushel, with bean oil contributing 52% of the value, which is still a historically high ratio. Soybean oil (and cotton) reached new highs last week.

Tidbits The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is really a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait. No ships are allowed to enter or leave an Iranian port, but the U.S. says the strait is open and Iran says the strait is closed. The reality is insurance companies are limiting shipping through the strait. On Sunday, President Trump issued the following statement: "Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as a

Corn Market Summary Corn, wheat, and soybean futures usually trade to their highest price of the year between late April and late June. Every Wednesday we send you an email entitled Weekly Summary & Recommendations (link in the section below) in which we discuss the technical outlook, fundamental outlook, seasonal price trend, and profitability of the current price. Given the new information from the USDA with 2026 acres, the quarterly stocks information and the latest weat

Tidbits Baker Hughes reported there were 548 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 5 more than last week but 42 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 142 rigs drilling this past week, which was 11 fewer than a week ago and 11 fewer than a year ago. Worldwide, there were 1058 rigs drilling at the end of March, 54 fewer than the previous month and 37 fewer than a year ago. CGB at Gladstone Bluff, Illinois (on The River) Friday evening compared to

Tidbits Mike Alfred is a private investor, advisor, and corporate board member of several companies. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Alpine Fox LP, a private investment partnership focused on value equities and Bitcoin. He has 338,600 followers on X, where he posted mid-day yesterday (Sunday): "I just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. Light wind, good visibility, saw a few other yachts. No sign of conflict. The trading lane is open for business. Oil should soft

Tidbits Iran’s president issued an apology to neighboring countries to calm regional anger at Iran’s strikes on Gulf civilian targets and urged them not to join the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Fertilizer: From Agrinvest and Dellagro Team: "The global fertilizer market went on alert following escalating tensions in the Middle East, which increased logistical uncertainties in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday. The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some shipo

Tidbits Mexican drug cartels declared war on the Mexican and U.S. governments after their drug lord, El Mencho, was killed in a joint Mexican-U.S. operation. It was 15 days ago that Mexico agreed to joint operation in Mexico with U.S. authorities and they succeeded in taking out a kingpin. The drug cartel has declared war on the Mexican people in an attempt to motivate citizens to plead for the government to call off its persecution of the drug cartels. Many Mexican cities

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports. Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Basis & FOB: Yesterday, we reported to you corn prices at New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) and corn at the Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports were the same FOB price, namely $220 per mt. We cannot remember a time when FOB in the PNW was equal to FOB at NOLA. The prices are the same this year because the cost of rail freight to the PNW from the Midwest is covered by the extremely weak basis in the Upper Midwest compared to the Eastern Corn Belt and river outlets coupled with t

Tidbits The Ag futures market will not trade again until Monday evening due to President's Day. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. Soybeans Pricing Jake Hanley is the Chief Growth Officer and Director of Investments at Teucrium which provides Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in agricultural futures-based strategies as an investment opportuni

Tidbits Yesterday’s February S&D increased 2025/26 U.S. corn exports, which reduced the marketing year carryover by ~5% or 3 days’ use. World corn carryover was lowered by 1 days’ use as well, it is the smallest in 9 years. World soybean and domestic wheat carryover rose about 1%. The USDA is the world's gold standard for crop estimates, but it faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep staff losses and a

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

What is wrong with the way we market ag commodities in this country? When grain is contracted for deferred delivery at a fixed price, the grain elevator hedges those bushels in the futures market. That enables them to pay the farmer the contracted price when he delivers the grain later. For example, in June you execute a December corn HTA (or forward contract) at $4.40 on 50,000 bushels. When you deliver the corn in October, December corn is $3.60. The elevator sells your c

Tidbits The EU is very upset that Trump has put a tariff on all their products shipped to the U.S. until the U.S. gains control of Greenland. The EU is our largest importer of soybean meal. Last year, the EU imported 20.6 million mts of U.S. soybean meal. The U.S. economy has two major problems: Unprofitable grain production for most of the last three years with 2026 looking just as bad or worse. Datacenters under construction or planned for construction will not have ac

Tidbits President Trump announced that he will immediately impose a 25% tariff on any country that does any business with Iran. According to the most recent World Bank data, Iran, an OPEC member, exported goods to 147 countries in 2022. Its largest trading partners are China, certain East Asian countries, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Germany. The price of crude oil rose by another $1.50. The Supreme Court is expected to issue their ruling on Trump’s tariffs tod

Tidbits Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of soybeans to China 104,328 mts of soy meal to Mexico 250,000 mts of corn to unknown Brazil's Corn: Geraldo Isolodi is an analyst with Terra Investmentos of Brazil. He wrote his South American Crop Update earlier this month. Here are the highlights of what he had to say about the corn market: "At the present, the corn market is supported by robust domestic demand from corn-based ethanol plan

Tidbits China bought at least ten more shiploads of U.S. soybeans (~650,000 mts) on Tuesday according to multiple sources within the grain export trade. Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities: China continues buying soybeans from the U.S. Purchases have reached 67 cargoes, ~35% of the program. These purchases make no economic sense — they are political purchases. The losses on these soybeans for crush are enormous, which leads the market to think: regardless of price, the sta

Tidbits Early last week President Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. On Friday, a large crude refinery and chemical facility in Venezuela had a serious explosion, the cause of which is reportedly unknown. On Monday, the U.S. will designate Venezuela’s drug Cartel de Soles as a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the U.S. That designation legally allows a U.S. military strike on any target within the country tha

Tidbits President Donald Trump is committed to providing Americans a $2,000 check using money that has come into government coffers from Trump's tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump's staff is exploring how to go about making the plan a reality. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote today to end the government shutdown. OPEC revised its crude oil demand projections for 2026 from higher to about unchanged to show a “ba