BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Chinese and U.S.  officials will be meeting this weekend to prepare the agenda for next Thursday’s meeting of Trump and Xi to discuss “important issues”. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the Chinese oil majors have suspended purchases of Russian oil due to the U.S. sanctions. It seems like questionable news, because yesterday, commenting on U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated at a briefing tha

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Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

Tidbits Corn Acres:  Zaner Ag Hedge Chief Analyst, Karen Braun, asked USDA/NASS via their chatline (paraphrased): Karen prepared state-by-state corn acres reported in June vs corn acres in September. Note the biggest acreage increases percentage wise were in Mississippi, North Dakota, Kansas, Arkansas, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Together, Nebraska and Minnesota added 850,000 acres.

Tidbits The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 11 AM Central Time today. As expected, CBOT ag markets were higher yesterday as they recovered from oversold conditions the previous two days. The market will trade the production numbers in the few first minutes or so after the report is released, then the market will trade the U.S. carryover numbers for 3 to 20 minutes, and then the market will trade the world carryovers in

Tidbits Cattle and feeder cattle  were lower yesterday after a report this weekend of the first human screwworm case in the U.S. which was found in Maryland. The person had just returned from El Salvador. The Fed: Yesterday President Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook because she claimed two homes were her main residence on her mortgage applications. Wheat: Seven of the last ten years, soft red winter December wheat futures made its low in the last half of August

Tidbits Trump and Putin  talked for 2 hours and 45 minutes yesterday afternoon in Alaska. After the meeting, they held a press conference where they said there was no deal made, but a lot of progress was made. Trump said he will contact European leaders and Ukraine’s President Zelensky to fully brief them on the details discussed, there would be preparations for a three side meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the United States, and the Ukraine should make a deal. Trump said

Tidbits The U.S. struck a framework trade deal with the EU  on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, but averting a spiraling battle between the two economic powers which account for almost a third of global trade. The announcement came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled for talks with President Trump at his golf course in Western Scotland. They shook hands on a hard-fought deal.   The deal mirrors key parts of the framework agr

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 554,400 mts  of new crop (2025 corn) and 75,600 mts of 2026 corn  to Mexico . Somebody in Mexico thinks corn is really cheap to be buying that much for future delivery. Mexico’s wheat imports for the 2025/26 season are projected to rise to 6.4 million mts due to its lowest harvest in 30 years. Current season import estimates are at 5.2 million mts. The U.S. remains the primary supplier with a share of about 73%, follow

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said it would be “economic suicide” for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz  because the Iran’s oil also passes through the strait. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, pumping 3.3 million barrels per day. It exports at least 1.6 million bpd, with nearly 80% sold to China.   TankerTrackers.com Sunday afternoon: "Iranian tankers are still loading crude oil, and today’s satellite imagery shows additional Iranian a

Highlights U.S. President Donald Trump says the American military has completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel.   "We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space,"  he wrote on Truth Social. Corn Marketing Opportunity and Recommendation This is the weekend that the seasonal tr

Highlights Bio Fuel consultant, Corey Lavinsky, reports the Senate's proposed changes to the 45Z clean fuel  credit have been released &...

Q&A: Marketing Plans A Prospective Client asked on 22 April 2025:   "I am getting your trial emails and have a couple of questions. My marketing plan is to store as many bushels as possible on farm and market them as old crop between 5-12 and 6-22-25 selling ~17% each week for 6 weeks, maybe every Wednesday at noon? When selling old crop, do I just sell cash price for the nearby month and deliver during the six-week period described above?" We usually recommend you separate t

"There is just as much additional profit to be made with better marketing as there is with more yield." -Clifford Baughman, 1964; the first vocational agriculture to teach high school students grain marketing.        The highest price for 2025 corn, wheat, and soybeans futures will most likely be made in the next two months. Making any pricing decision is difficult.   Our job is to provide the most important fundamental, technical, and seasonal information for you to make the

2025 Soybean Market Plan: Specific Reasons and Steps The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% of each calendar year’s price range: 2024 — 83        2023 — 65 2022 — 43 2021 — 31     The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% year’s price range after 21 June: 2024 — 0        2023 — 37 2022 — 3 2021 — 8

World corn supplies are smaller compared to usage than they have been for at least 8 years and significantly tighter than they were in 2022 when July corn traded to $8.24 on 29 April 2022 and December corn traded to $7.66 on 16 May 2022.   The U.S. corn carryover in April of 2022 was projected by USDA to be 35 days’ worth of use. The world carryover that month was projected to be a 93 day supply.           When the 2022-23 marketing year numbers were all settled two years lat

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

Market Comment After 4 to 6 days of gains, corn, wheat, and beans all closed lower Friday, which is a down day if the markets had been decided higher in the days before Friday. Traders know a lot of things can change over a weekend.   If you are looking for a place or time to get long futures or call options, this is the week to probably do that. The USDA S&D on Thursday at 11 Am Central time usually causes the market to trade lower in the days before the report. The coming S

Highlights The USDA reported the crush numbers for July: Soybean crush in July was 193 million bushels, 8 million bushels more (4.3%) than a year ago.   Corn crush was 527 million bushels, 4% more than a year ago. Corn for ethanol was 474 million bushels, also 4% more than a year ago. Canola crush was 230,516 tons, 10.1% more than a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined was 32.8 million pounds, 27% more than a year.   USDA will issue the next S&D on Thursday, 12 September. Trad

Highlights Statistics Canada reported yesterday the 2024 Canadian corn crop is 15.229 million mts, down 1.2% from last year. The average estimate was 14.967 million mts with a range of 14.6-15.4 million. The Canadian soybean production is 7.15 million mts, up 2.4% from 2023, but 58,000 mts less than the average estimate. The range of estimates was 6.9 and 7.45 million mts. All wheat production at 34.373 million mts, 752,000 mts less than expected, but considerably more than t